Neither Nor

[caption id=”attachment_1803” align=”alignleft” width=”240” caption=”Pictured here: a Yuniesky Betancourt home run. Savor it.”][/caption]

C’mon, really?  The Team of Destiny, getting past the presumptive NL World Series squad to continue some fairy-tale playoff run?  And getting bulletin-board material from every possible area of the team (Tony Plush, sure, but GRIENKE?!?!)n in order to fuel their run?  Well, if you realize that this “underdog” is actually better than the team that started the year, and they have all their players (nominally) healthy, then, sure, they’re an underdog. And if you look at the actual NL Central winner — yeah bratwurst! — and notice that one of their rotational stalwarts (Shaun Marcum) has been scuffling mightily during the back end of the season, then that 9-9 head-to-head record doesn’t seem to mean all that much.

So I’m going to be boring, and obvious, and say that home field advantage is going to be key.  That might be in part because of Milwaukee’s ridiculous home / road splits, which came to bear in the NLDS against Arizona) (though starting a weary Marcum and a mediocre Randy Wolf might’ve had a bit more to do with that outcome).  For those keeping score, St. Louis had the same record - 45-36 - home and away.  But, again, this Cardinals team was scuffling throughout most of the season.  Now this team has their ace back and healthy (Chris Carpenter), their three big boppers back and healthy (Pujols / Berkman / Holliday), some downcard hitters that are just as important (Furcal and Freese), and that mean-so-much momentum.  And the “underdog” mojo.  Despite being one of the best teams in the NL for the past 5 years.  Meanwhile, the Brewers have a similar configuration, except I’d say they have two potential aces (Grienke and Gallardo), and while they only have the two big bats (Fielder and Braun), they have a little more overall depth in their line-up.  And while the Brewers have the stronger bullpen, LaRussa’s matchup OCD might make that a wash. But it was also LaRussa being LaRussa that forced a tiring Kyle Loshe to throw cookies to Ryan Howard back in Game 1.  Then again, Ron Roenicke’s ride-it-out approach with his starters down in Arizona made that series much closer than it needed to be.

So, if you assume that all these pros and cons wash out — as they seem to — then it’s back to the not-so-analytical tact of picking the team with home field advantage.  And that, as already mentioned, is the Milwaukee Brewers.  If the projected starter schedule holds up, then this series will feature three outright laughers (especially that Wolf / Loshe tilt) (still not a Loshe believe, in case you’re wondering) and four pitching duels, including a Game 7 throwdown between Carpenter and Gallardo for all the slamma-lamma-ding-dongs.  Even if I wasn’t picking BREWERS IN SEVEN, I’d be rooting for that matchup every which way.