Neither Nor

[caption id=”attachment_1797” align=”alignleft” width=”300” caption=”Chris Davis: Never Forget”][/caption]

Since I did such a bang-up job picking the Yankees and Rays to win each of their series in five games, I figured it’d only be right to turn such unerring accuracy and unfailing insight on the actual ALCS opponents.

During the regular season, the Tigers actually took six out of nine from the Rangers, none of them won by Justin Verlander; he only started once against Texas, back in April, and lost 2-0 to Alexis Ogando. Coincidentally enough, this showdown could feature only one Verlander start and three Ogando wins (albeit three bullpen wins), though it’s most like that Detroit’s Game 1 starter will come back on 3 days rest to try and keep the Tigers’ hopes alive in Game 4.

Of course, anything can happen in a short series, like Delmon Young hitting three homers in a five-game series, or Adrian Beltre hitting three homers in one series-clinching game. I guess folks are chalking up the Tigers’ win against New York to playing “team baseball,” which is a nice way of saying that the only guys that hit a darn in that series for Detroit were the aforementioned Mr. Young, Don Kelly, and Magglio Ordonez.

There’s also Brandon Inge’s three-for-seven to consider as well, but hopefully Jim Leyland won’t really consider that a reason to give Inge any more PT than he has so far this post-season. The Rangers are, like in their ALDS win, slated to start two righties and two lefties [or three lefties and one righty, as a helpful / dickish comment-maker noted - ed], which means (barring another rain postponement), Inge and Wilson Betemit will share time at the hot corner swinging their bats against the side they do the most damage against.

There’s always a chance he could also pencil in Don Kelly’s name at 3B for the duration of the series, like he did in Game 5, but with Young actually off the roster (due to a Game 5 injury), Kelly’s liable to see his time spent running around the outfield, sharing time with Ryan Raburn and Ordonez in either corner. Getting someone to spell Austin Jackson would be prudent, but for all of Leyland’s willingness to switch things up, it’d take something calamitous to get him to replace Jackson’s speed in the OF. (You might want to bump him down in the order, though, Jim. Just a suggestion.)

With the Rangers against the Rays, I figured the Rays’ right-handed hitters would have all sorts of fun banging Derek Holland and Matt Harrison around the ballpark. So, of course, it turned out to be CJ Wilson – the best of the three Rangers’ leftie starters – that Tampa Bay repeatedly took deep. Holland almost spit the bit, but James Shields was too busy doing worse to let that make any sort of difference. With the Tigers’ right-sided sock limited to one really good hitter (you know) and Jhonny Peralta, there’s even less of a chance that Texas’ lefty-heavy pitching staff will cause any problems.

Between that, and the top-to-bottom strength of the Rangers line-up, it’s no wonder most folks are picking the Rangers to defend their American League Championship. The Tigers need both Verlander and Fister to pitch to their utmost abilities, in order to keep their tightrope-walking bullpen from causing any issues. The Rangers just need their starters to keep things close, so their bullpen and hitters can make their presence felt.

No offense to Fister’s or Scherzer’s efforts against the Yankees, but the Rangers’ offense is a whole different beast entirely. And I’ve a feeling, with Scherzer’s wildness and Fister’s need for pin-point accuracy, Verlander’s the only one that has any chance of keeping them in check. And he’d have to do so twice on three days’ rest in order to give the Tigers any kind of chance. Which means that, by my picking TEXAS IN SIX, that’s exactly what’s going to happen. So when Alex Avila hits 6 HRs, throws out Elvis Andrus in a key spot late in Game 4, and is named series MVP, just think fondly of me if you’re a Rangers fan for a brief moment before burning me in effigy.