Neither Nor

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The Rangers have the 2010 AL pennant. The Rays have that little thing called “momentum.” The Yankees have the benefit of being the Yankees. And the Tigers have the spectre of 2006 dogging them every step of this playoff run. No doubt the farther they make it into the post-season, the more footage they’re going to show of the team throwing the baseball all around the ballpark while watching the Cardinals win the World Series. Of course, they played just fine getting there five years ago, and there’s really no reason that it can’t be the same this year.

The key for the Tigers, and this might come as a shock to some folks, is how well the non-Verlander starters fare. Of course you can’t assume that Justin Verlander is going to win his starts, especially when he’s paired up against CC Sabathia. But assuming Verlander pitches to form, then all the Tigers need is for Doug Fister or Max Scherzer to hold server against the Ivan Novas and Freddy Garcias of the world. (Yahoo’s showing me that Rick Porcello is slated to pitch Game 4, which I doubt will happen, and probably shouldn’t even if the Tigers are up 2-1.) My money’s on the hot hand, of course, as Fister’s matched Verlander in terms of Cy-Young-worthy excellence during his 11-game Detroit career (70.1 IP, 57 Ks, only 59 total baserunners, and a snazzy 1.79 ERA) (don’t mind those 5 unearned runs). Folks might roll their eyes whenever anyone Yankee-affiliated brings up Ivan Nova as an ROY hopeful, but given he began the year with a 5.82 ERA in 21 innings of work, bringing it down to a totally respectable 3.70 for the season is at the very least worth noting. Freddy Garcia’s 3.62 ERA might also be noteworthy, but I’m choosing instead to notice the 1.36 WHIP that tells me his ERA is an aberration. At any rate, I’m going to assume that any non-CC start will feature a lot of bullpen action, with Joe Girardi doing his over-reactionary thing to somehow get the ball into Methuselah’s hands for yet another save.

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However, getting to a place where Mo can lock it down might be trickier than some would believe. The Tigers offense isn’t nearly as balanced as the Yankees, of course, but with guys like Alex Avila (143 OPS+), Jhonny Peralta (21 HRs and a .299 average in an impressive bounceback campaign), Victor Martinez (only 12 HRs, but 40 2Bs, and a .330 AVG), and of course Miguel Cabrera (the usual overlooked silliness), Jim Leyland can string some quality hitters together. Replacing the desiccated corpse of Brandon Inge with Wilson Betemit, who’s .525 SLG shows he’s quite happy with Comerica Park’s vast expanses, is another thing to put in the PRO column. And then there are the cons: nominal lead-off hitter Austin Jackson and his pathetic .319 OBP, and whichever of Delmon Young or Magglio Ordonez ends up starting. The Tigers don’t have many holes, but they make up for that with the quality and depth.

Meanwhile, the Yankees feature two 40 HR guys (if you don’t mind me rounding up Mark Teixeira’s season total), two more over 20, a fifth that would easily have 20 if his body wasn’t falling apart, and only two starters with OBPs lower that .340 for the season (both of whom, coincidentally, are catchers). Even if A-Rod isn’t available, the Yankees will undoubtedly have plenty of guys on base, with more than a few of them crossing the plate. Verlander can keep them off the bases, and a Max Scherzer pitching to the fullest abilities can make like a poor man’s Verlander. But if Scherzer was doing that on a remotely consistent basis, he wouldn’t be sporting a 1.35 WHIP. And Fister, prior to going to Detroit, was the sort of guy that let the defense do the work for him; if that version appears, there’s going to be trouble. Maybe if those guys can scrape by and get a close game to the Alburquerque / Benoit / Valverde trifecta in the bullpen, this will be more of a series. But I can’t see the Yankees having issues with anyone besides JV, and though he’ll get his two starts, the second one will come earlier than Leyland wants, with three days rest to stave off elimination in Game 4 against CC a second time. And then they’ll have to contend with Game 5 in New York. And you can probably guess how I think that’s gonna go. Boring, and assuming Verlander goes on short rest, but probably true: YANKEES IN FIVE.